IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.0	#290
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.0	#124
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#291

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.5	#262

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	14.2	n/a

.500 or above	11.9%	13.0%	3.0%
.500 or above in Conference	2.9%	3.2%	0.6%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	51.6%	49.6%	67.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 2.4	0.1 - 2.4
Quad 1b	0.1 - 2.6	0.2 - 5.0
Quad 2	0.6 - 5.1	0.8 - 10.1
Quad 3	1.9 - 5.5	2.7 - 15.6
Quad 4	7.1 - 4.6	9.8 - 20.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	351	Delaware St.	W	73-63	89%
Nov 09, 2018	176	James Madison	L	68-74	38%
Nov 11, 2018	227	Lamar	L	69-72	50%
Nov 16, 2018	113	@ Georgia Tech	L	61-72	11%
Nov 19, 2018	311	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	78-76	66%
Nov 21, 2018	297	Prairie View	W	76-75	63%
Nov 24, 2018	255	High Point	L	68-70	54%
Nov 27, 2018	197	@ UNC Wilmington	L	75-80	24%
Nov 30, 2018	175	Appalachian St.	L	72-78	39%
Dec 02, 2018	341	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	72-65	80%
Dec 18, 2018	301	@ Charlotte	W	76-75	43%
Dec 28, 2018	347	N.C. A&T	W	77-69	82%
Jan 02, 2019	56	@ SMU	L	60-76	6%
Jan 05, 2019	36	Cincinnati	L	57-75	10%
Jan 10, 2019	101	@ Memphis	L	66-77	12%
Jan 13, 2019	55	@ Central Florida	L	58-74	5%
Jan 16, 2019	72	Temple	L	65-79	18%
Jan 23, 2019	37	@ Houston	L	63-81	4%
Jan 26, 2019	250	South Florida	L	67-69	53%
Jan 31, 2019	195	Tulane	L	71-76	42%
Feb 03, 2019	96	@ Connecticut	L	65-77	10%
Feb 06, 2019	81	Wichita St.	L	67-80	20%
Feb 10, 2019	250	@ South Florida	L	67-69	33%
Feb 13, 2019	101	Memphis	L	66-77	26%
Feb 17, 2019	98	Tulsa	L	66-78	24%
Feb 23, 2019	195	@ Tulane	L	71-76	25%
Feb 27, 2019	37	Houston	L	63-81	11%
Mar 03, 2019	98	@ Tulsa	L	66-78	12%
Mar 05, 2019	81	@ Wichita St.	L	67-80	9%
Mar 10, 2019	96	Connecticut	L	65-77	23%
Projected Record						9.8 - 20.2	3.4 - 14.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0							0.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0								0.8	5th
6th								0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0									1.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.7	1.4	0.5	0.0										2.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.4	2.0	0.9	0.1											4.6	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.4	3.6	1.5	0.1	0.0											8.1	9th
10th			0.1	2.1	5.5	5.5	2.4	0.3	0.0												15.9	10th
11th		0.8	5.9	9.6	7.3	2.3	0.3	0.0													26.2	11th
12th	7.5	13.8	11.4	5.3	1.2	0.1	0.0														39.4	12th

Total	7.5	14.6	17.4	17.0	14.6	10.6	7.8	4.6	3.0	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.0			0.0
15-3	100.0%	0.0		0.0		0.0
14-4	6.5%	0.0		0.0
13-5	0.0%
12-6	0.3%	0.0					0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.0%																							0.0
15-3	0.0%																							0.0
14-4	0.0%		87.1%	87.1%		12.0												0.0	0.0					0.0
13-5	0.0%		5.6%		5.6%	11.0												0.0						0.0		5.6%
12-6	0.2%		8.7%	8.7%		13.0													0.0	0.0				0.1
11-7	0.4%		0.3%	0.3%		13.0													0.0		0.0			0.4
10-8	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		13.0														0.0				0.8
9-9	1.5%		0.1%	0.1%		14.5															0.0	0.0		1.5
8-10	3.0%		0.9%	0.9%		15.0																0.0	0.0	3.0
7-11	4.6%		0.3%	0.3%		14.1															0.0	0.0		4.6
6-12	7.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.8
5-13	10.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
4-14	14.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	14.6
3-15	17.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	16.9
2-16	17.4%																							17.4
1-17	14.6%																							14.6
0-18	7.5%																							7.5

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	14.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%